So Naomi swoops in on the island from her unseen parachute where she jumped from an unseen helicopter which took off from a freighter 80 miles away - all sounds pretty suspect to begin with right? (Yes, I know they get a hold of 'Minkowski' on her satelite phone but he could be anywhere, true?)
But then she tosses in this information that their plane was found, bodies inside, in an ocean trench - memorials were held, new albums were released, blah blah blah.
Why do they believe her?
The official podcast tells us that either she was lying or there is a conspiracy and I for one think it may be both. There was a conspiracy to cover up the planes disappearance and obviously Naomi's story was a cover. So... how much did she really know? Was she really coming for Desmond? ...I doubt it.
We have to ask ourselves, what was her mission objective? I would guess it was simply to locate the island and then let the cavalry know. She even made sure someone else knew how to operate the phone in case something happened to her. So now we ask, who's cavalry? Is it the return of Dharma trying to reclaim the island or some other group?
I tend to agree with your thinking, but what I keep coming back to.....
If her mission objective was simply to locate the island and then radio its position back to her superiors, why even bother to make up such a complicated story about 815? And why even bring up Desmond and Penny? As far as the losties know she IS looking for them and they would swallow that story hook, line and sinker with few questions. Why bother to tell them otherwise with some convoluted and strange story about the plane being found with all passengers dead? Wouldn't that just invite suspicion about her motives just from the sheer weirdness of it?
And if the Others found her first, why have any type of identifying objects with her at all, ie the picture of Desmond and its inherent Widmore connection. I agree she may not be who she says she is, but if she wants to complete her mission objective with the least amount of scepticism from whomever finds her, why even bring the Des/Penny picture or mention the story about the 815 wreckage being found? It just invites questions about her arrival.
I admit I know nothing about "special ops" protocol, but it seems to me that a simple story is best, not one with so many details.