There are no Variables

[E.S.B.]

Good stuff, Adriana, and welcome!

My only comment would be that Eloise told Desmond that the universe course-corrects itself - so Desmond could've stopped Charlie from dying over and over again, but the universe would ultimately catch up to him.  So the idea is maybe you can change little details, but the grand destiny will always play itself out.

But then again...   I still believe that Desmond is The Variable (see my signature).  Maybe you can change little bits and pieces here and there, and the domino effect can ultimately change destiny.

[Holland34]

Long time reader, first post -- please be gentle (especially because someone else may have already brought this point up).

After re-watching "Flashes Before Your Eyes" just now (the Desmond-centric Season 3 ep focusing on Desmond's future-flashing abilities, and featuring Eloise's first appearance), it's obvious that throughout the episode, Eloise is showing and convincing Desmond that "whatever happened, happened." The man with the red shoes always dies, and does die.  Desmond always breaks Penny's heart, and DOES break Penny's heart.  Desmond finally subscribes to Eloise's belief that destined is only able to be fulfilled, despite how much we fight.

BUT -- when Desmond realizes he has correctly predicted the man charging into the bar to beat up the bartender who owes him money, and shouts "Duck, brothah!" ... the bartender ducks -- changing destiny.

I know it's been theorized in this thread that you can't change time unless you KNOW what is going to happen next -- and the bar example with Desmond supports that -- but it ALSO supports that there ARE VARIABLES.  Desmond may be Daniel's constant, but in that instance in the bar, he was his own variable.  The bartender was supposed to be hit with the club, but Desmond made him duck.  From a dramatic storytelling POV, the writers WANTED us to realize that destiny CAN be changed when they ended Desmond's flashback segment with the precise moment that he chose to -- and successfully did -- change his own destiny.

Paradox or not, if that facet of LOST's time-traveling canon holds true ... the Losties very well may cause a different "present" than we've observed over the last 5 seasons.  If it's well-timed, and accurately observed, ANYTHING can change.


(Personally, I'm hoping to see some re-play of the scene with Daniel in one of the next two episodes -- a sort of "what if he didn't bring the gun" episode that will result in him living.)  Effing miss him!

Nicely spelled out, Adriana.  I've put myself solidly in the "what has happened, happened" camp, but this is probably the most convincing argument I've seen of the possibilities otherwise.  I think that E.S.B.'s response is also important because ultimately, even though the bartender ducked and "changed history", Desmond still ended up on the island (course correction).  Of course, I don't remember all of the details of that episode, so short of re-watching it, I may be missing a few key points.   

[grizn0]

I always thought that Desmond seeing Charlie on the street after the job interview held some sort of meaning. What exactly, I don't know.

[Adriana]

Nicely spelled out, Adriana.  I've put myself solidly in the "what has happened, happened" camp, but this is probably the most convincing argument I've seen of the possibilities otherwise.  I think that E.S.B.'s response is also important because ultimately, even though the bartender ducked and "changed history", Desmond still ended up on the island (course correction).  Of course, I don't remember all of the details of that episode, so short of re-watching it, I may be missing a few key points.   

I have also always been a staunch "whatever happened, happened" believer (WHH'er?), due largely to the rules that have been established within LOST ... annnddd partly due to my childhood obsession with Back to the Future.  In fact, time travel is something I've loved wondering about before LOST and have always been very opposed to the whole idea that you can go back in time and kill your grandmother.  "Whatever happened, happened" has kind of always been the conclusion I've come to in my lazy contemplations about space-time.  When Daniel was killed by Eloise, I was shocked and REALLY sad (my freaking favorite character!) but it confirmed my belief that the Losties won't be able to do anything to change the future of the hatch. 

Which is why, when re-watching "Flashes Before Your Eyes," and realizing the significance of the scene when Desmond tells the bartender to duck, AND IT WORKS, I had to get it out there.  If the writers intend to pick up on that exception to the rules made possible by The Variable, PERHAPS the following rules have to be followed:

1) The Variable (person changing the course of time) has to have perfect knowledge of the event about to occur.  I mean, time it's going to happen, players involved, how it's going to happen -- be able to visualize each step perfectly to insert him/herself at the perfect moment. 

E.S.B said: "So the idea is maybe you can change little details, but the grand destiny will always play itself out."  I agree with this, in theory.  Desmond did change a little detail -- but with perfect knowledge, maybe a Variable has the ability to change big events too.  After all, who is to say what the "grand events" are in any path?  We viewers think then end-all, be-all events are the hatch exploding and the plane crashing, but maybe in the grand scheme of Time and The Island, these are just blips -- little details which can change along the route to fulfilling the destiny that Time and The Island have in store.

2) The Variable is going to be Desmond.  We know Daniel could have established himself as The Variable by doing at ONE simple thing -- NOT warning Charlotte.  But he did.  He remained a Constant in this equation.

Why did Eloise care to visit Desmond?  Why did WIDMORE care to see how he was doing?  Certainly not out of empathy for his family -- they have a stake in him surviving and going back to the island, too.  Maybe the name of this episode doesn't refer to the events going on on the island ... but the man lying in the hospital.

[Souldrinker]

I think that this is what makes Desmond special. Being the variable.We already have seen something change when Dan talked to Desmond when they were time tripping. That was something what can't have happened before. So yeah the rules don't apply to him and he is able do change things.

[ukslim]

We already have seen something change when Dan talked to Desmond when they were time tripping.

Have we? It might be poor memory on my part. But did we really see something happen one way, then again a different way, based on something Dan or Desmond did?

Dreams or premonitions don't count...

[Souldrinker]

Desmond did not remember meeting anybody than Kelvin until he saw Locke pounding on the Hatch

[ukslim]

Desmond did not remember meeting anybody than Kelvin until he saw Locke pounding on the Hatch

Hmm. /me thinks. I'm so attached to Whatever Happened, Happened that I'm really tempted to say that memory lapses don't count, along with dreams and premonitions. But that would be a hell of a memory lapse. I just don't know. Let's hope it gets resolved.

One thing about Desmond's sudden memory of Dan (causing his visit to Cambridge) - although on-screen it happens right after Dan knocks on the hatch, in actual calendar time there's no relationship whatsoever between those two moments. Even if Dan 'changed history' (and we can't be sure he did), why wouldn't 'changed Des' carry that memory throughout his life, instead of it suddenly catching up with him that night?

[Souldrinker]

Desmond did not remember meeting anybody than Kelvin until he saw Locke pounding on the Hatch

One thing about Desmond's sudden memory of Dan (causing his visit to Cambridge) - although on-screen it happens right after Dan knocks on the hatch, in actual calendar time there's no relationship whatsoever between those two moments. Even if Dan 'changed history' (and we can't be sure he did), why wouldn't 'changed Des' carry that memory throughout his life, instead of it suddenly catching up with him that night?

That's the big  in my head too

[Writers_Strike]

It is a cop-out so they can stay away from paradoxes and continue with the story line. Like you said, Des should have remembered when he met Dan or 30 years from now. They can't have him remeber earlier because that will screw up the timeline laid out by the writers in season 2. The only reason he remembered that night was so the writers can place him back in LA for the reunion under the time church.

[Holland34]

Desmond did not remember meeting anybody than Kelvin until he saw Locke pounding on the Hatch

One thing about Desmond's sudden memory of Dan (causing his visit to Cambridge) - although on-screen it happens right after Dan knocks on the hatch, in actual calendar time there's no relationship whatsoever between those two moments. Even if Dan 'changed history' (and we can't be sure he did), why wouldn't 'changed Des' carry that memory throughout his life, instead of it suddenly catching up with him that night?

Okay... I've been trying to work out the linear timing of Daniel and Desmond's conversation (linear from Daniel's perspective) to the point where Desmond recalled this "memory" in the future.  Off the top of my head, from Daniel's perspective the conversation takes place somewhat soon (within days) after Desmond leaves the island (Ben moves the donkey wheel and those on the island start flashing around), but Desmond doesn't recall the conversation until about three years of being off the island.  Can anyone confirm?

Assuming this, I am having issues determining any relativity as to the timing of the Dan / Des conversation to when Desmond recalls the conversation.  Next assumption... the writers aren't just utilizing this as an Easy button to facilitate the storytelling (I tend to think they're not that lazy... that said, if that assumption is not correct, then this conversation is done)... if that's correct, what could be the "trigger" that makes Desmond suddenly recall this conversation?  Why that time?

The other example I was thinking about that could tie to this concept is Eloise's comment of not knowing what's going to happen next for the first time in a long time.  Daniel had been gone for about three years (linear time from when he left for the island to when he gets shot)... this also ties to about the same length of time from which Daniel left to when Eloise made the comment (in actual linear time).

Just some brainstorming...

[Holland34]

If the writers intend to pick up on that exception to the rules made possible by The Variable, PERHAPS the following rules have to be followed:

1) The Variable (person changing the course of time) has to have perfect knowledge of the event about to occur.  I mean, time it's going to happen, players involved, how it's going to happen -- be able to visualize each step perfectly to insert him/herself at the perfect moment. 

E.S.B said: "So the idea is maybe you can change little details, but the grand destiny will always play itself out."  I agree with this, in theory.  Desmond did change a little detail -- but with perfect knowledge, maybe a Variable has the ability to change big events too.  After all, who is to say what the "grand events" are in any path?  We viewers think then end-all, be-all events are the hatch exploding and the plane crashing, but maybe in the grand scheme of Time and The Island, these are just blips -- little details which can change along the route to fulfilling the destiny that Time and The Island have in store.

2) The Variable is going to be Desmond.  We know Daniel could have established himself as The Variable by doing at ONE simple thing -- NOT warning Charlotte.  But he did.  He remained a Constant in this equation.

Why did Eloise care to visit Desmond?  Why did WIDMORE care to see how he was doing?  Certainly not out of empathy for his family -- they have a stake in him surviving and going back to the island, too.  Maybe the name of this episode doesn't refer to the events going on on the island ... but the man lying in the hospital.

So, in your musings, a person doesn't have to have perfect knowledge to change the future in general (like Desmond's recollection of the bartender getting hit and telling him to duck at the last moment without really changing the end-goal), but does if the person wants to change the "big picture".  Almost as if the person needs to be able to pick-and-choose when to nudge things one way or another.

I can possibly see Eloise genuinely feeling bad about Desmond's role in all of this considering she knows that she "just lost her son" (she hadn't seen him in three years, but seems to know that he dies soon after she sends the O6 folks back to the island.)  I can see Widmore showing up because of his care for Penny (although, side note... he seems to get there really quickly... Ben called Widmore just minutes before shooting Desmond yet Widmore is able to make the 12 hour flight from London to LA amazing fast).  All that said, I like the idea that "the Variable" title isn't even geared towards the concept, rather than towards Desmond himself... especially after the re-commitment of Des to Penny about never leaving her again.

[jamesl]

...Off the top of my head, from Daniel's perspective the conversation takes place somewhat soon (within days) after Desmond leaves the island (Ben moves the donkey wheel and those on the island start flashing around), but Desmond doesn't recall the conversation until about three years of being off the island.  Can anyone confirm? ...

I guess its how you define "from Daniel's perspective"
I would say, from Daniel's perspective, the conversation happened years before Widmore's crew (Daniel, Miles, the Mercs)  even got to the island

[Writers_Strike]

...Off the top of my head, from Daniel's perspective the conversation takes place somewhat soon (within days) after Desmond leaves the island (Ben moves the donkey wheel and those on the island start flashing around), but Desmond doesn't recall the conversation until about three years of being off the island.  Can anyone confirm? ...

I guess its how you define "from Daniel's perspective"
I would say, from Daniel's perspective, the conversation happened years before Widmore's crew (Daniel, Miles, the Mercs)  even got to the island

I say from Dan's perspective his conversation with Des happend less then 6 hours after the freighter exploded. Desmond remembers 3 years after he left the island.

I think it was about 4-6 years from when the 2 had their chat to when Des remebers it.

[Writers_Strike]

OK new theory on Desmond's memory.

Dan talked to Des sometime around 2001-3 and told him to find his mom and save them. During this time Dan dissapears and travels to another time 1954 I think. Maybe during the flash Desmond's memory of that conversation traveled with them.

Before that scene was when Locke got shot by Ethan and flashed to the future (post rescue). We know this because Richard told Locke that he was the one that dissapeared. So I am thinking that this time when Richard is fixing John's leg is the same night that Desmond remembers the conversation with Dan. His memory flashed with Dan and the gang and landed in his head 4-6 years later.

What do you think?