In this episode there was a line where Claire ask Kate to watch Aaron. Kate says something like "Im not good with kids". They keep talking and Claire says you should try it sometime. I think what will happen is. Kate will watch Aaron one time and Claire will go off on a lil adventure or something. While she is gone Kate will have her one and only chance to leave the island and she will leave with Aaron.
I like this idea, except that I think Kate will be under the impression that something happened to Claire. I don't think she will knowingly separate mother and child for her chance to be rescued. And then later, we will find out that Claire is indeed alive, maybe kate will find out presenting her with a difficult choice of risking the child she now thinks of as hers to return to the island for Claire or playing it safe and staying away. One thing for sure, Jack wouldn't approve of not going baaack for Claire, especially if he finds out she's his sister. I think you're onto something, crazy stuff.